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Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 28th, 2019, 10:31 pm
by Vader182
My impression of the Oscar Race 2019, per convo in The Irishman thread.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the current frontrunner. (Cross posted from Irishman): it screened for Academy members and they became so packed they had to add additional screenings. It's a tender elegy for their industry, a love letter for actors (by far the biggest demographic in the academy) and written and directed by one of the 'greats' of his generation who has never won best picture or best director. There's an impression Tarantino "grew up" with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, too. It's a powerful mix.

Marriage Story doesn't have an "Oscar Narrative Hook" as said elsewhere, and Irishman is crazy long and slow, which means many academy members may watch it on/off multiple viewings at home which will "hurt" the movie probably. It might be seen by some as a bit of a slog, despite enormous love for Scorsese. The Netflix factor may hurt those movies more than anything, still seen as an existential threat to the industry.

Jo Jo Rabbit may be too weird and divisive, and we don't give best picture winners to foreign movies (Parasite). Ford V Ferrari by all accounts is too slight, so is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Joker could easily become the Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody of this season, outraging the film twittersphere but plays big to the expanded academy audience. Then there's 1917 and Little Women, which are huge unknowns but there's good buzz on both.

(in order)
Hollywood
Irishman
Marriage Story
Jo Jo Rabbit
Parasite
Ford V Ferrari
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
The Two Popes
Joker


-Vader

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 28th, 2019, 10:40 pm
by radewart
Has "Queen and Slim" been seen yet?

Also, I don't think Netflix can get three films nominated, So "Two Popes" may be the odd man out.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 12:43 am
by BlairCo
Bombshell could also make a last minute splash similar to American Sniper or Phantom Thread.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 8:10 am
by Master Virgo
Speaking of Eastwood and last minute contenders, his latest film Richard Jewel will also be released in December 13, so there's that.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 8:15 am
by Nomis
what about The Lighthouse

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 8:51 am
by BlairCo
Master Virgo wrote:
September 29th, 2019, 8:10 am
Speaking of Eastwood and last minute contenders, his latest film Richard Jewel will also be released in December 13, so there's that.
I reckon it'll be more The Mule than American Sniper.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 8:30 pm
by Numbers
Nomis wrote:
September 29th, 2019, 8:15 am
what about The Lighthouse
yes

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 29th, 2019, 8:47 pm
by Vader182
likely way too weird for a BP nom. maybe dafoe and below the line noms.


-Vader

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: October 8th, 2019, 5:01 am
by Nomis
Robert Pattinson will compete for lead actor oscar for his role in The Lighthouse, Dafoe for supporting

tbh, it's going to take months before The Lighthouse is shown in my country but at this moment I can't see anybody rival Phoenix' performance in Joker when it comes to winning Best Actor

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: October 8th, 2019, 4:02 pm
by Bacon
Dafoe might actually win Best Supporting Actor for this then. Both Joaquin and Dafoe could become Oscar winners this upcoming season. :shock: