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Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 16th, 2019, 10:50 pm
by Cilogy
If Argo and The Artist are any indication, AMPAS love movies that are about the movies. Which in my mind is like if you give someone an award for complimenting you.

Once Upon a Time is gonna win.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 16th, 2019, 10:57 pm
by Vader182
Cilogy wrote:
September 16th, 2019, 10:50 pm
If Argo and The Artist are any indication, AMPAS love movies that are about the movies. Which in my mind is like if you give someone an award for complimenting you.

Once Upon a Time is gonna win.
Perhaps, although it's also Tarantino and a mix of slow and hyper-violent so it won't be for everybody. It's the frontrunner right now, but there's a long time to go before that can change.

Also keep in mind Academy demo is 30%ish different than it was when Artist or Argofuckurself won.


-Vader

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 16th, 2019, 11:08 pm
by BlairCo
Sony has a couple of movies lined up with some potential Awards pedigree, including A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood and Little Women, so I wonder what they'll be leaning on more when it comes to campaign time.

But on the topic of campaigning, looking at how much Netflix spent on Roma last year, and with The Irishman still coming out, which movie do you guys think they'll have their chips more on; The Irishman or Marriage Story? It would be earth-shattering for two Netflix movies to be nominated in the same year.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 16th, 2019, 11:13 pm
by Vader182
BlairCo wrote:
September 16th, 2019, 11:08 pm
Sony has a couple of movies lined up with some potential Awards pedigree, including A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood and Little Women, so I wonder what they'll be leaning on more when it comes to campaign time.

But on the topic of campaigning, looking at how much Netflix spent on Roma last year, and with The Irishman still coming out, which movie do you guys think they'll have their chips more on; The Irishman or Marriage Story? It would be earth-shattering for two Netflix movies to be nominated in the same year.
What's more, they look to be potentially in competition in the same categories. Driver's the frontrunner this year for best actor, but Irishman can change that.

Interesting oscar season indeed.


-Vader

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 17th, 2019, 12:12 am
by anarchy
Vader182 wrote:
September 16th, 2019, 10:00 pm
Yeah. Joker has an outside chance at a nomination, but it's not in the 10 most likely at this stage of the game.

Hollywood is the frontrunner to land a BP nom. Likely director. It will probably wind up being one of the most nominated movies this year given all the below the line stuff + screenplay.


-Vader
After winning the Golden Lion and continued strong reviews out of TIFF (and probably guaranteed box office success) I’d say Joker is locked for BP. I also saw an IndieWire poll that has strong support for Phillips so it might also get into BD, even though BD is competitive as usual and leans arthouse.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 17th, 2019, 12:25 am
by Vader182
anarchy wrote:
September 17th, 2019, 12:12 am
Vader182 wrote:
September 16th, 2019, 10:00 pm
Yeah. Joker has an outside chance at a nomination, but it's not in the 10 most likely at this stage of the game.

Hollywood is the frontrunner to land a BP nom. Likely director. It will probably wind up being one of the most nominated movies this year given all the below the line stuff + screenplay.


-Vader
After winning the Golden Lion and continued strong reviews out of TIFF (and probably guaranteed box office success) I’d say Joker is locked for BP. I also saw an IndieWire poll that has strong support for Phillips so it might also get into BD, even though BD is competitive as usual and leans arthouse.
The Golden Lion doesn't usually predict BP nominations, last two years are exceptions. Before 2017 you'd have to go to 2008 to find a Best Picture nomination of a GL winner. Add in bias towards comic book movies, the "its dangerous" backlash and the general lack of critic support (currently 76% at RT) I wouldn't say it's a lock.

On the 'other' side, the academy's tastes clearly skew broader than ever given last year's major players (Rhapsody, Green Book), so an "art" CBM might be exactly what'll play well. At current juncture, I'd say it's in the 9-12 range. Definitely a big player, but with three major contenders left to screen... there's a lot of ways this can shake out.


-Vader

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 23rd, 2019, 5:44 am
by BlairCo
Here are my Best Picture predictions:
Image

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 23rd, 2019, 6:14 am
by LelekPL
BlairCo wrote:
September 23rd, 2019, 5:44 am
Here are my Best Picture predictions:
Image
After Oscars so white, I think that one of Waves, Queen & Slim or Just Mercy will get a nom as well.

As for my list, I guess I can also add Honey Boy as an outside shot but with Shia not being liked in the industry that much I think it would need to be REALLY excellent to get a nom.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 23rd, 2019, 6:19 am
by BlairCo
Maybe Waves. We'll have to wait for the critical response with Queen & Slim. I don't think Just Mercy is getting in at all; the buzz just wasn't that strong coming out of TIFF except for the performances.

Re: 2019-2020 Awards Season

Posted: September 28th, 2019, 12:11 pm
by Nomis
Guess we can already say The Irishman has it's sights on BP nomination and probably all the others too lol